By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Third-quarter earnings will continue to be the focus of the stock market. Next week’s busy schedule includes widely followed names Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Of the 99 S&P 500 members that have reported earnings so far this quarter, 72% have posted a positive earnings surprise, with the aggregate surprise up 4.5%.
- Important readings on consumer attitudes will be released on Tuesday (Conference Board’s reading of Consumer Confidence) and Friday (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment). Confidence/sentiment has been trending slightly higher in recent months despite weak stocks and high inflation. Friday’s report also includes inflation expectations for both one and five years. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored with the last reading at 2.9%.
- Elon Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buyout is scheduled to close by Friday. Late last week, Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is considering investigating potential national security risks posed by the deal.
Three Things to Know
- The Atlanta Fed calculates a running estimate of real GDP growth using available economic data for the current measured quarter. It is not the official forecast but is a mathematical projection with no subjective adjustments. (For example, it does not account for all of the effects of Covid -19). The latest estimate (updated Oct. 19) for the third quarter is 2.9%. (Source: The Atlanta Fed)
- The weekly national average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.24% last week, the highest in two decades. (Source: Bankrate)
- The average annual return of the S&P 500 during the third year of the Presidential Cycle is 13.5%. The only negative year three of the Presidential Cycle was in 1931. (Source: Seth Golden)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.