By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- On Friday, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) favored inflation measure, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), will be released, and this is the last one before the Fed meets in September to discuss interest rates. Core (and overall) PCE are expected to increase 0.2% month-over-month, which would put the year-over-year changes at 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. That would also result in a three-month annualized rate for core inflation of 2.1%, very near the Fed’s target.
- Other economic data to be released this week includes consumer confidence, durable goods, personal income and spending, and the first revision of second-quarter GDP. Most are considered second-tier data and are expected to be consistent with the soft-landing narrative.
- Tech and artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia is scheduled to release earnings on Wednesday after the market closes. Both earnings and revenues are expected to more than double from a year ago.
Three Things to Know
- Labor Day is the unofficial end of Hot Dog season. The National Hot Dog and Sausage Council says that between Memorial Day and Labor Day, Americans will eat 7 billion hot dogs. (Source: National Constitution Center)
- After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, the futures markets are now pricing almost equal odds of a 25- or 50-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate at the September 18 meeting. Futures are also currently pricing a total of 100 basis points in easing over the balance of this calendar year. (Source: Bloomberg)
- A huge revision made to U.S. job growth numbers saw 818,000 jobs wiped out in the 12 months through March 2024, marking the biggest downward adjustment since the global financial crisis. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.