By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- First-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with reports from several major financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America) on the tapes, along with Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs and United Airlines. Forward guidance as it relates to the impacts of tariffs continues to be the focus of Wall Street as it parses CEOs’ commentaries.
- On the data front, import and export prices will be out on Tuesday, retail sales and industrial production on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Retail sales are expected to be strong with the ex-autos and gas reading up 0.6% month-over-month. That would be the strongest reading since last fall. Industrial production is forecast to be down -0.2% and initial jobless claims up 225,000. So far the sentiment data has been the most negative with employment-related data holding up relatively well.
- The bond market will be in focus this week. After initially rallying as stocks fell, the yield on the 10-year note has increased from 3.86% on April 4 to a high of 4.56% on April 11. The yield curve has steepened dramatically, with the 2-year versus 10-year spread widening 50 basis points over the last month. Higher yields are problematic for the budget longer term.
Three Things to Know
- Americans spend 6.6 billion hours doing taxes each year. The average person spends 13 hours and $270 completing their 1040. (Source: Wallethub)
- One-year inflation expectations are 6.7%, according to the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. (Source: Haver)
- The MSCI EAFE index of developed international stocks is up 1.59% year to date versus -8.81% for the S&P 500. (Source: Bloomberg)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.